Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, including his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.