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The most severe projected effects of the global heating for the UK have been mapped by experts, ranging from a searing 4C increase in mean temperatures to a 2-metre surge in sea levels. Another scenario foresees a decline of 6C in temperatures following the shutdown of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would profoundly upset agriculture and power requirements.

Possible Outcomes, Not Predictions

These consequences, a number of which are connected to climate tipping points, are seen as improbable but possible. The scientists explained that these scenarios addressed a shortfall in forecasting that had left the UK unprepared for catastrophic possibilities.

"The severe weather events we have detailed are not forecasts, but they are plausible," said the lead researcher who oversaw the research. "The nation has been planning in the absence of the methods to assess catastrophic outcomes. We've now supplied policymakers what they need to prepare for climate outcomes they hope never happen, but must not overlook."

A Suite of Severe Conditions Possibilities

Another collection of dire projections sets out the possible scale of extreme weather between now and the end of the century. These indicate that thermometer readings could soar in certain periods by up to 6C higher than the norm, while precipitation could be triple standard measurements.

The chance of the worst-case outcomes coming to pass cannot be precisely determined due to unknown factors about what action will be taken to address global warming and how the Earth's systems will respond. This approach was compared to defence planning or resilience checks for the banking sector.

Critical Outcome Details

• Severe Heating: Worldwide averages exceeding 4C by 2100 could occur if international cooperation fails or if vicious cycles such as the tropical forests becoming a net carbon source release its enormous store of carbon. This would lead to extreme and prolonged heat domes and water shortages plaguing the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A major ocean current, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), is weakening and losing stability due to ocean warming. A collapse commencing by 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Crop production would face immense difficulties and water resources would be drastically changed," explained the lead researcher.
• Rapid Sea Level Rise: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica collapse rapidly, flooding low-lying areas. Unlike the other scenarios, this possibility is already understood by coastal engineers.
• Pollution Paradox: Temperatures could also be increased by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is drastically reduced. This unexpected result occurs because pollution particles from fossil fuel combustion block sunlight from reaching the ground.

Building Resilience Against the Extreme

The worst-case scenarios could be used to inform the development of long-term infrastructure, including new towns, power generation facilities and urban drainage systems. Understanding these future hazards could also hasten the push to slash carbon pollution.

The analysis created the extreme models using a mix of past data and records, climate models and established principles. The scenarios do not take into account potential global problems such as the agricultural collapse and resource wars.

This work was initiated as part of a official risk assessment framework. Independent analyses have warned that too little consideration was being allocated to low‐likelihood but high‐impact risks.

The government's climate advisors has said that the UK needs to "adapt to 2C" and evaluate the dangers for 4C. Earlier government strategies have been labeled being "very weak" by environmental groups.

A government spokesperson noted: "Climate change is at the heart of this government’s agenda, both building resilience and establishing itself as a low-carbon economy. It is crucial that the UK is ready for the effects."