Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.