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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.